The Hurricanes’ College Football Playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.
In order for their season to continue in the most meaningful way, Miami needs a certain set of events to occur in this weekend’s conference championship games.
As it stands entering the weekend, Miami is No. 12 in the playoff rankings. But being ranked 12th is not good enough to reach the playoffs this year. Two teams ranked below UM will earn spots in the bracket. If Virginia beats Duke in the ACC title game, the Cavaliers and the top-ranked Group of 5 champion will make the playoffs. If Duke (which has five losses this season) wins, the committee will likely take two Group of 5 teams.
The end result is the same: The Hurricanes must be No. 10 or higher when the committee releases its final rankings on Sunday afternoon. Some of the conference championship games, like the Big Ten title game, will be irrelevant to the Hurricanes. Here are the games that matter, and who Miami fans should be rooting for in them:
SEC championship: No. 9 Alabama (10-2) vs. No. 3 Georgia (11-1), Saturday, 4 p.m.
Who UM should root for: Alabama
At first glance, it would appear that Miami fans should root for Georgia to win. After all, the Bulldogs are ranked higher and are essentially a lock for the playoffs. If they lose, they will drop — but not far. Alabama, on the other hand, is ranked ninth and is only two spots removed from falling out of the playoff and opening up a spot for Miami.
The reason to root for the Crimson Tide is because of the committee’s desire not to punish teams prohibitively if they lose a conference title game. Doing so would disincentivize the games and could jeopardize their very existence. Why would Alabama want to play the conference title game if losing would knock it out of the playoffs while similar conference opponents with the same record, like Oklahoma, could get into the field simply by sitting on the couch?
Last year, the committee kept SMU in after losing the ACC title game on a late field goal. The Mustangs had one loss entering the game and dropped from eighth to 10th, but they stayed in the field.
The committee may be loath to drop a defeated Crimson Tide two spots and out of the playoff for losing to a high-level opponent that they beat during the regular season. If Alabama loses a relatively close game, the committee could drop it to No. 10, which would likely move Notre Dame up one spot to No. 9 and keep the committee from taking UM’s head-to-head victory over the Fighting Irish into stronger consideraton (something committee chair Hunter Yurachek said the committee may do if UM and Notre Dame are side-by-side in the rankings).
If the Crimson Tide win, the top nine spots in the rankings would most likely be sewn up. That could allow an even more direct comparison between the Hurricanes and Notre Dame, leaving the possibility that the committee could flip the two teams at the last moment.
There is one caveat that could be advantageous for Miami if Georgia does beat Alabama. The Hurricanes compare favorably to the Crimson Tide in some ways. The one common opponent between the two teams is Florida State. The Crimson Tide lost to the Seminoles in Week 1, while the Hurricanes beat FSU in October. Miami also ranks slightly ahead of Alabama in some computer rankings. The committee could opt to drop Alabama down one more spot — especially if it suffers a blowout loss — and replace it with Miami in the field, though that may not be likely.
And whether the Hurricanes are side-by-side with the team in the 10th spot likely depends on the result of another key game.
Big 12 championship: No. 11 BYU (11-1) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (11-1), Saturday, 12 p.m.
Who UM should root for: Texas Tech
This is the most important game for Miami’s playoff hopes (as well as Notre Dame’s hopes). If BYU and Alabama both win, neither Miami nor Notre Dame will make the playoff.
The Red Raiders enter the game as one of the best teams in the nation, having rolled through most of their schedule. The Cougars are underrated; they are the lowest-ranked one-loss Power 4 team. But there is one catch: BYU and Texas Tech already played, and the Red Raiders beat the Cougars by more than three touchdowns.
Because of that loss, BYU is on the outside of the bracket, looking in. The Cougars’ task is simple: If they win, they will earn an automatic bid as a conference champion. If they lose, they are out, and Miami needs BYU to be out in order to clear a path.
The Hurricanes need the Cougars to lose — preferably by a large amount again — so the committee will feel justified in dropping BYU behind Miami. If Miami moves up one spot to No. 11, then, as mentioned before, it becomes “easier” for the committee to compare the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish directly. UM and Notre Dame have similar resumes, and the Hurricanes beat the Fighting Irish when they played.
Of course, there is also the possibility that BYU loses a close game, and the committee leaves BYU at No. 11 and Miami at No. 12.
If the Cougars pull off the upset, the Red Raiders are unlikely to fall from No. 4 to No. 11, given their dominant performance all season.
ACC championship: No. 17 Virginia (10-2) vs. Duke (7-5), Saturday, 8 p.m.
Who Miami should root for: Duke
The fact that Duke wound up in the ACC title game despite a 7-5 record is a potential issue for another day. Due to the Blue Devils’ 6-2 conference record — tied with four other teams — and superior conference opponent winning percentage, Duke is in the conference title game over Miami.
Duke winning would put the the College Football Playoff in an unprecedented spot. The committee is required to put the five highest-ranked conference champions into the playoff. Everyone has always assumed that four of those five highest-ranked conference champions would be from the four power conferences —the ACC, Big 10, Big 12 and SEC — the last spot would go to a Group of 5 champion.
But this year may be different. Duke is unranked. Even if the Blue Devils win on Saturday, they may still be unranked. If Duke wins, the committee will likely take the American Conference champion (either No. 20 Tulane — which beat Duke — or No. 24 North Texas) and the likely Sun Belt champion, No. 25 James Madison (unless JMU loses as a heavy favorite, which would cause all sorts of mayhem and could open the door to the playoffs for the Blue Devils).
Ostensibly, nothing Duke or Virginia do on Saturday should affect Miami. UM did not play either team, nor did Notre Dame. However, if the Blue Devils win and don’t make the playoffs, it could increase the pressure on the committee to include at least one ACC team (and Miami is the top-ranked ACC team), as college football pundit Josh Pate mentioned in his show on Tuesday.
Each conference receives a $4 million payout for each of its teams that make the field (and potentially receives more money if those teams advance), according to the Sports Business Journal. The ACC surely wants that money, and the committee may not want to incur the wrath of a power conference.
Mountain West championship: UNLV (10-2) at Boise State (8-4), Friday, 8 p.m.
Who Miami should root for: UNLV
Why does a Mountain West game played Friday night in Idaho matter to the Hurricanes? Because the Broncos played Notre Dame in early October.
The Fighting Irish won that game 28-7. If the Broncos win this game, it would slightly improve Notre Dame’s resume. Perhaps the committee could use that resume boost to justify keeping UM behind Notre Dame.
To make things easier, Hurricanes fans should hope the Rebels, coached by former UF coach Dan Mullen, claim the conference.
