A La Niña through the winter months will likely produce a relatively warm and dry winter this season in South Florida, forecasters say.
The National Weather Service on Wednesday issued its annual dry season outlook. Though the La Niña is considered a relatively weak one, it will still exert an influence on South Florida weather.
A general warming trend over the last decade should be enhanced by La Niña, which usually results in warmer winters.
The drought conditions that persisted through the bulk of 2025 are back for most of South Florida, with the exception of coastal areas.
November was particularly dry, with 2 to 4 fewer inches of rain than normal in several areas of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
“During a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream tends to be a bit farther to the north,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Robert Molleda.
That causes winter storms that travel from west to east across the continent to track well north of Florida, he said.
“That means that the cold fronts that move into the southeastern U.S. and Florida during the winter tend to have less moisture associated with them.”
Molleda said that drier-than-normal conditions are likely through the winter, with less storminess in the form of severe thunderstorms or tornadoes.
That does not mean we won’t get cold snaps. “The jet stream can still fluctuate. There are going to be times when it’s going to dip to the south,” he said. That jet stream airflow will bring cold air, and often storms with it.
La Niña combined with warming trends means a warmer winter.
“The last 10 winters have been well above normal temperatures, for the most part, across much of the Florida peninsula,” said Molleda. “La Niña, based on past events, combined with trends, leads us toward warmer-than-normal winters, and a really dry season overall.”
2010-11 was the last cooler-than-normal winter.
And though La Niña generally makes for a less stormy winter with fewer intense thunderstorms and tornadoes, there can still be exceptions.
In 2023, a La Niña spring, Fort Lauderdale was slammed by record-breaking rains, where 26 inches of rain fell in less than 24 hours, causing severe flooding.
La Niña, with its larger long-term influence, “sets the stage” for individual weather events, said Molleda, but does not cause them directly.
2025 was a year of drought in South Florida, and it looks like that pattern will continue.
“We’re already in drought conditions. It’s more than likely that the drought conditions will persist or even worsen,” said Molleda. That could lead to wildfire threats increasing by as early as January.
