As South Floridians enter the three-day Labor Day weekend, the odds of wet weather will increase across the region, according to the National Weather Service.
Though most of the region can expect 2 to 4 inches of rain by Tuesday morning, intense storms could cause some areas to get soaked with more than 10 inches of rain.
Temperatures and humidity will remain high through the three-day weekend, with “feels-like” temperatures fluctuating between 103 and 108 degrees.
The intensity and repetition of daily thunderstorms may lead to flooding Saturday through Monday, “especially across the metro areas, as well as the poor drainage areas,” forecasters said.
The report said rainfall through Tuesday morning could be heavy at times, especially along the coast.
“Two to 4 inches of rain won’t cause much concern over the Everglades,” said meteorologist Sammy Hadi, of the National Weather Service. “But if we have those higher totals occur in a short period of time over cities that are vulnerable to flooding, we could have some issues. We could easily see much higher rainfall in isolated locations. Then you would have significant urban or potentially flash flooding.”
The probability of rain throughout the metro area, from the coast to the western suburbs, should range from 76% to 83% each day through Sunday.
Friday and Saturday will kick off a trend of afternoon and evening storms, some of which could become “strong to marginally severe,” with gusty winds, heavy downpours and a good bit of lightning.
Though it’s too early to say where, exactly, heavier showers could lead to rain totals of 10 inches or more. Hadi said a recipe of factors will likely focus the most rainfall on coastal urban areas.
A large frontal boundary has stalled over Florida, there’s little wind, and there’s plenty of tropical moisture around.
“On Saturday, the southwesterly winds kick in, which pins the Atlantic sea breeze directly over the metro area,” Hadi said. “Instead of that line of clouds forming inland, it will actually focus thunderstorm development directly over the urban areas, and storm motion will be very slow,” Hadi said.
“So we have a recipe here: We have a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, you have very slow storm motion, and you have winds keeping that boundary on the east coast metro.”
