Tropical Storm Fernand is forecast to weaken as it churns over the open Atlantic Ocean, and odds have plummeted for a system to develop near the eastern Caribbean.
As of 8 a.m. Monday, the Caribbean disturbance was given a near 0% chance of developing, down from 30% on Sunday evening.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fernand has a short-lived window over warm waters with light wind shear in which to strengthen, but weakening is forecast to begin Monday night, experts said.
As of 11 a.m. Monday, Fernand was 425 miles east-northeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, moving north-northeast at 13 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 80 miles from the storm’s center.
Once Fernand and the second system fizzle, hurricane season looks like it will take a brief nap into September.
But don’t get comfortable, says Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross.
Lulls in hurricane season are common. A nearly monthlong lull happened last year in late August, then was followed by high activity, including two major hurricanes — Helene and Milton — that caused widespread destruction in Florida and beyond.
“Last year there was a big gap at the end of August into September when we didn’t have anything that was significant,” Norcross said. “Then it was like a switch was flipped in the middle of September and suddenly one storm after the other formed.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s long-range tropical hazards outlook shows just a couple of areas with low chances of tropical cyclone development until at least Sept. 9. Coincidentally, Sept. 10 is the statistical peak of hurricane season.
The next named storm to form would be Gabrielle.
