It might seem like a fortunate flop — only five hurricanes, when most forecasts back in spring called for eight or nine.

It was actually “pretty hopping,” said University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy. It was also “weird” said Colorado State hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.

“Overall it’s a strange season to categorize,” said Klotzbach. We had fewer than average hurricanes, about 70% of normal, but far more days with major hurricanes, about 150% above average, he said.

Though the season only produced five hurricanes, four of them were major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher, and three were Category 5 storms — highly unusual. The only other time that has happened in recorded history was in 2005 with Hurricanes Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

It was the first year since 2015 without a hurricane hitting the U.S., and the first time since 2010 with an “above normal” season with no landfalls.

There was also an odd lull at the traditional peak of the season from mid-August to the end of September.

And through some very lucky circumstances, nearly every storm in the Atlantic arced north away from land.

Tragically, Hurricane Melissa, the last storm of the year, was also the strongest and deadliest, with winds of 185 mph and impacts that caused more than 90 fatalities in the Caribbean.

Stormy expectations

Expectations were high (as in rough) leading into the season. According to June outlooks from Colorado State’s tropical weather center, the 2025 season was supposed to be above average due to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, and the fact that El Niño, which can hamper storms via wind shear, had dissipated.

Forecasters predicted that the 2025 season would generate:

– 17 named storms (there have been 13).

– 9 hurricanes (there have been five – Andrea, Chantal, Erin, Gabrielle and Melissa).

Protection forces and dumb luck

Fortunately, only one named storm, Chantal, made landfall in the U.S., when it rolled into South Carolina.

Powerful steering forces and a bit of “dumb luck” kept storms away.

The Bermuda High, a semi-permanent high pressure system that sits over the Atlantic and has the power to block hurricanes northward turns, was generally weak, so every storm traveling across the Atlantic took sharp turns to the north, away from land.

There were other fortuitous factors. Klozbach said that a low pressure area parked over the east coast for 5 or 6 weeks this summer blocked storms from approaching the U.S. It also produced a lot of win shear that would have hampered any storm that had broken through.

The wildcards were Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda. The two storms paralleled each other as they headed toward the U.S., with Imelda making a B-line for the Carolinas. But about a day before impact, the storm made a sudden dogleg out to the Atlantic, sucked away from land by Humberto’s winds.

“Imelda was a very close call,” said Klozbach. “That was really dumb luck that we had Humberto right there to basically tug Imelda out to sea.”

If Humberto hadn’t been there, “Imelda would have been a really bad rainmaker for the Carolinas,” Klozbach said.

Lulls-ville

During what is normally the peak of hurricane season — from mid August to late September — there was a lull in tropical activity. Klotzbach said that during the lull there were pronounced high-altitude, low-pressure systems — called tropical upper-tropospheric troughs — that sent wind shear across the Atlantic, nipping storms in the bud.

Hurricane Melissa, which would break records with sustained wind speeds of 185 mph, formed as a tropical storm on Oct. 21. It traveled over Caribbean waters with heat content that was “through the roof,” said Klotzbach.

That deep hot water was why Melissa was able to remain a Category 5 for some 36 hours – much longer than average.

This year’s hurricanes Humberto and Erin, which never made landfall, each had a six-hour stretch of Cat 5 power. 2005’s Katrina managed 18 hours.

“It’s rare to have no hurricanes in the Caribbean through mid October, and then fire off a Cat 5 – every year is weird, but I feel like in these last two years I’ve used the words weird and strange a lot,” said Klozbach.

The future

The season is essentially over. “I’d be very surprised if we got anything substantial at this point,” said Klozbach. Given the above average Accumulated Cyclone Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will refer to 2025 as an “above normal” season.

As for next year, NOAA suspects the current weak La Niña will be around through the winter and return to neutral by spring.

“The last El Niño was 2023 to 2024, so there’s a possibility of getting one,” said Klozbach.

An El Niño normally brings shear, which is bad for hurricanes. That said, 2023 was an El Niño year and was still very very busy, said Klotzbach. “That’s because the Atlantic was so dang hot,” he said.

Melissa had sustained wind speeds at landfall of 185 mph, which ties for the strongest Atlantic landfall in recorded history with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and 2019’s Hurricane Dorian.

The Labor Day storm hit the Florida Keys and killed hundreds of people, and Dorian hit Abaco in the Bahamas, killing 74 people and leaving hundreds more missing, according to the Bahamian government. The storm later caused at least 78 deaths in the United States.

Startling endurance

Hurricane’s don’t usually maintain Category 5 strength (sustained winds of 157 mph or higher) for very long.

This year’s hurricanes Humberto and Erin, which never made landfall, each had a six-hour stretch of Cat 5 power.

2005’s Katrina managed 18 hours.

Melissa stayed at Category 5 for 36 hours, the fifth-longest in recorded history, according to WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry’s Eye on the Tropics newsletter.

Highest hurricane winds ever?

On Tuesday, Hurricane Hunters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration dropped a dropsonde, an instrument used to measure windspeed, into Melissa’s eyewall. When the dropsonde neared the ocean’s surface it measured a sudden wind gust of 252 mph.

“That is perhaps the highest windspeed measurement made by a dropsonde (inside a tropical cyclone) in history,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher with the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. He said it could be confirmed later this year.

Extreme intensification

A storm that ramps up in wind speed by 35 mph within 24 hours is considered by NOAA to be rapidly intensifying. Melissa turbocharged by about 70 mph during a 24-hour period. “That’s extraordinary,” McNoldy said.

WFLA-TV meteorologist Jeff Berardelli thinks Melissa is part of an intensification trend fueled, in part, by human-driven climate change.

Ocean warmth fuels storms, and oceans are warmer now than they were in the 20th century.

Berardelli found that the last 22 years (2003-2025) had more than twice the amount of Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms than the previous 22 years (1980-2002).

Going past mountains

One thing that stunned McNoldy when he looked at satellite footage of Melissa nearing Jamaica’s southern coast was that the significant mountains of the island didn’t weaken or put a divot in the storm until after the storm was over land.

The mountains in western Jamaica, where the storm hit, range from 600 feet to the 4,839-foot Mount Horeb.

“Mountains should interrupt the surface circulation,” said McNoldy. “Even if Jamaica were flat it should have had an impact, like asymmetries in the storm. And that just didn’t happen.” The storm maintained its pristine form. That “blows my mind,” he wrote on Bluesky.

What blows my mind about this is that #Melissa doesn't even notice that there's a large mountainous island right next to it. It's like the map outline was drawn on there arbitrarily.

— Brian McNoldy (@bmcnoldy.bsky.social) 2025-10-28T15:10:55.076Z

Melissa’s ability to collide with mountains and still have 185 mph sustained winds at landfall makes the storm perhaps more impressive.

The other 185 mph storms encountered no mountains. The 1935 Labor Day storm rolled over the flat Florida Keys, and Dorian hit the Bahamas, where there’s scant impediment to the storm’s rotation.

Melissa’s small diameter likely helped. Wide storms hit obstacles earlier, while narrower storms can approach closer before being compromised, McNoldy said.

“With really compact storms, they’re more prone to extremes. They can go really, really crazy and intensify, or with the first hint of vertical wind shear, they get upset and weaken. In this case there was no wind shear.”

Deep hot water

Berardelli calculated that the surface water under Melissa was about 4 degrees hotter than it would have been around 100 years ago. “That’s huge!” he wrote on X. “That extra heat powers a higher horse power engine with heavier wind & rain.”

But depth is what gave Melissa real staying power. McNoldy said one of the reasons Melissa was able to stay at a Category 5 for 30 hours was because of the deep hot water south of Jamaica at the time.

Hurricanes cause ocean upwelling as their spinning pulls water up from the depths.

If a storm is moving fast, say 25 mph, it’s constantly encountering new hot surface water, which fuels the storm’s power.

If a storm is moving slowly, like Melissa, which was traveling at 3 mph, it can pull up cold water, which weakens the storm.

Hurricanes need waters of at least 78 F to develop. McNoldy crunched the numbers and found that the waters south of Jamaica were at least 78 F all the way down to depths of 393 feet — the water that Melissa pulled up to the surface was warm enough to keep the storm strong if not make it stronger.

“It was over very high ocean heat content, so it could just sit there and not upwell cooler water,” said McNoldy.

Incredible view of a C-130 Hurricane Hunter flying into Hurricane Melissa. pic.twitter.com/SBY0gcTptz

— Turbine Traveller (@Turbinetraveler) October 28, 2025

The perfect storm

The hurricane hunter aircraft that flew into Melissa’s eye before it made landfall in Jamaica took video of the beast of a storm, and it looked almost like a sculpture, as if it had been spun on a pottery wheel.

“If you could ever pick a hurricane hunter flight to be on, it would be into a Category 5 during the daytime,” said McNoldy. “It would be really amazing. At that point, Category 5 storms have achieved perfection.”

Melissa will grow in size on its way toward Bermuda and is expected to pass northwest of the island. It could restrengthen more by Thursday evening, though it would be a “quick event” for the island with not much rain given Melissa’s faster speed by that time, according to Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The U.S. east coast should expect large swells and tumultuous marine conditions, as effects from Melissa combine with a storm traveling across the U.S.

The storm made its second landfall just after 3 a.m. Wednesday in eastern Cuba near the city of Chivirico as a Category 3 storm, a day after barreling into Jamaica with 185 mph sustained winds — tied for the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall in recoded history.

Destruction reached far beyond Jamaica. At least 23 people have died across Haiti and 18 are missing, Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency said in a statement, revising the death toll downward. Twenty of those reported dead and 10 of the missing are from the southern coastal town of Petit-Goâve, where flooding collapsed dozens of homes.

Melissa already had been blamed for seven deaths in the Caribbean, including three in Jamaica, three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing. At least one new death was reported in Jamaica on Wednesday after a tree fell on a baby. Authorities have found at least four bodies in southwest Jamaica as of Thursday..

Prime Minister Andrew Holness said up to 90% of roofs in the southwest coastal community of Black River were destroyed.

“Black River is what you would describe as ground zero,” he said. “The people are still coming to grips with the destruction.”

More than 25,000 people remained crowded into shelters across the western half of Jamaica, with 77% of the island without power.

Emergency relief flights began landing at Jamaica’s main international airport, which reopened late Wednesday, as crews distributed water, food and other basic supplies.

“The devastation is enormous,” Jamaican Transportation Minister Daryl Vaz said.

As of 8 a.m. Thursday, Melissa’s core was 605 miles southwest of Bermuda. The storm’s wind were 105 mph, up from 90 mph at 8 p.m. Wednesday. Melissa was moving north-northeast at 21 mph.

About 1 p.m. Tuesday, Melissa’s eye made its first landfall at New Hope, Jamaica, 75 miles west of Kingston, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph.

The storm’s impacts have been dramatic. Heavy floodwaters swept across southwestern Jamaica, winds tore roofs off buildings and boulders tumbled into roads.

Pictures: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa pummels Jamaica

The Jamaica Observer reported four people had been killed by the storm in St. Elizabeth Parish. Two of those people died in the town of Black River, about 10 miles east of landfall.

The news organization also reported that there was severe flooding in the mountain town of Mandeville, some 60 miles east of landfall. Cars were thrown asunder and flood levels reached the second story of shops and homes. Other streets were covered in debris-filled mud.

In Mandeville, Manchester, onlookers watched with hearts heavy and eyes filled with empathy as they took in the devastating scene left behind by Hurricane Melissa. Yesterday, firefighters rescued residents trapped in flooded homes, and today muddy waters still surround the three… pic.twitter.com/3aexuqEhV1

— Jamaica Observer (@JamaicaObserver) October 29, 2025

The U.S. government said it was deploying a disaster response team and search-and-rescue personnel to the region. And the State Department said non-emergency personnel and family members of U.S. government employees were authorized to leave Jamaica because of the storm’s impact.

Authorities said about 735,000 people that were in shelters in eastern Cuba had begun returning home.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Including Melissa, five hurricanes have formed so far.

Of the 13 named Atlantic storms, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall.

WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry wrote in his Eye on the Tropics newsletter that long-range models show conditions hostile to hurricanes, with a “winter-like pattern settling over much of the Atlantic in the coming weeks.” In other words, the tropics look mellow for the first half of November.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

Many aid organizations say they will be ready to head for Jamaica and other affected island nations.

Below, find a sampling of ways to contribute to community relief efforts.

DONATE

Direct Relief, aims to provide medicines and other resources to those affected by Hurricane Melissa: directrelief.org

U.S. Caribbean Strong Relief Fund, managed by The Miami Foundation, supports disaster preparedness and long-term recovery efforts: miami.fcsuite.com/erp/donate

Global Empowerment Mission, based in Doral, delivers aid to people around the world: globalempowermentmission.org

Food for the Poor, a Coconut Creek-based nonprofit that provides aid to the people of Latin America and the Caribbean: foodforthepoor.org

American Friends of Jamaica, supports Jamaican charities: theafj.org

United Way Broward: unitedwaybroward.org

World Food Program USA: wfpusa.org

GlobalGiving, a nonprofit crowdfunding platform: globalgiving.org

CARE, an international humanitarian organization: care.org

Americares, focuses on disaster relief and global health: americares.org

GiveDirectly, sends money to people living in poverty: givedirectly.org

American Red Cross, redcross.org/donations

Jewish Federation of Broward County Emergency Fund, jewishbroward.org/hurricane-melissa-relief

Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, ccadm.org

PROVIDE RELIEF ITEMS

Food for the Poor is accepting items at their warehouse at 6401 Lyons Road, Coconut Creek. Collection hours are 9 a.m.-4 p.m. Monday through Friday and 9 a.m. to noon Saturday.

They are looking for the following new items in the sizes listed:

• Wash cloths (12 inch-by-12 inch)
• Soap (3 ounces)
• Unscented deodorant (2 ounces)
• Shampoo or body wash (8 ounces)

County and city governments are collecting items including tarps, tents, sleeping bags, flashlights, batteries, generators, solar-powered lights, canned and nonperishable foods, water, soap, shampoo, deodorant, toothpaste, hairbrushes, washcloths, work gloves, industrial sponges and first-aid kits. Go to each website listed below for more details on suggested items as well as drop-off days and times.

The City of Fort Lauderdale is working with Food for the Poor to collect needed items: fortlauderdale.gov. Drop off at Fort Lauderdale Police Department lobby, 1515 W. Cypress Creek Road, as well as at the following Fire Rescue stations:

• Station 2, 528 NW Second St.
• Station 3, 2801 SW Fourth Ave.
• Station 8, 1717 SW First Ave.
• Station 16, 533 NE 22nd St., Wilton Manors
• Station 29, 2002 NE 16th St.
• Station 35, 1969 E. Commercial Blvd.
• Station 46, 1515 NW 19th St.
• Station 47, 1000 SW 27th Ave.
• Station 49, 1015 Seabreeze Blvd.
• Station 53: 2200 Executive Airport Way
• Station 54: 3211 NE 32nd St.

The City of Miramar: miramarfl.gov/News-articles; drop off at:

• Fire Station 19, 6700 Miramar Parkway
• Fire Station 70, 9001 Miramar Parkway
• Fire Station 84, 14801 SW 27th St.
• Fire Station 100, 2800 SW 184th Ave.
• Fire Station 107, 11811 Miramar Parkway
• Miramar Police Headquarters, 11765 City Hall Promenade

The City of Lauderhill: lauderhill-fl.gov; drop off at:

• Lauderhill City Hall, 5581 W. Oakland Park Blvd.
• St. George Community Park, 3501 NW Eighth St.
• Veterans Park, 7600 NW 50th St.
• John Mullin Park, 2000 NW 55th Ave.
• Westwind Park, 4550 NW 82nd Ave.
• Joy’s Roti Delight, 1205 NW 40th Ave.
• The Dutch Pot Jamaican Restaurant, all locations

The City of Tamarac: tamarac.gov; drop off at:

• Tamarac City Hall, 7525 NW 88th Ave.
• Fire Station 15, 6000 Hiatus Road
• Fire Station 36, 7499 NW 72nd St.
• Tamarac Community Center, 8601 W. Commercial Blvd.
• Tamarac Recreation Center, 7531 N University Drive

The City of Pembroke Pines: ppines.com; drop off at these fire stations:

• Station 33, 600 SW 72nd Ave.
• Station 69, 9500 Pines Blvd.
• Station 79, 19900 Pines Blvd.
• Station 89, 13000 Pines Blvd.
• Station 99, 16999 Pines Blvd.
• Station 101, 6057 SW 198th Terrace

Broward County: broward.org; drop off at:

• Miramar Branch Library and Education Center, 2050 Civic Center Place
• South Regional/Broward College Library, 7300 Pines Blvd., Pembroke Pines
• Southwest Regional Library, 16835 Sheridan St., Pembroke Pines

VOLUNTEER

Help assemble emergency kits at Global Empowerment Mission’s warehouse, 1850 NW 84th Ave, No. 100, Doral. Visit globalempowermentmission.org. Hours are:

• 10 a.m.-1 p.m. and 2-5 p.m. Oct. 28-31
• 10 a.m.-2 p.m. Nov. 1

It made its first landfall Tuesday afternoon along Jamaica’s southern coast with 185 mph top winds as a record-breaking Category 5 hurricane.

Melissa is forecast to make a third landfall over the central Bahamas as a Category 2 hurricane.

Melissa could then threaten Bermuda before pivoting over the open Atlantic.

The tropical wave, which is currently south of the Cabo Verde islands, should cross the Atlantic and enter the Caribbean early next week, where it could develop.

Warm water temperatures in the Caribbean and lack of wind shear in the area could bring prime conditions for increased tropical activity.

“Wind shear in the Caribbean has been running historically low through the heart of the season — consistent with a budding La Niña in the eastern equatorial Pacific,” wrote WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry in his Eye on the Tropics blog. “Since September, wind shear across the Caribbean has been the third lowest since 1979.”

“A number of the long-range computer models show the system strengthening in the Caribbean next week,” said Fox Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross in his Hurricane Intel blog.

Once in the Caribbean, it’s unclear what the system might do.

“The weather pattern late next week could pull the storm north towards the Bahamas and the United States. However, it could also continue moving west across the abnormally warm Caribbean,” according to AccuWeather.

The next named storm would be Melissa.

As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, remnants of Lorenzo had weakened.

Four hurricanes have formed so far in the Atlantic season, and none has hit the U.S. Of the 12 named Atlantic storms so far, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane season runs from through Nov. 30.

Not so in 2025. Four hurricanes have formed so far in the Atlantic season and none have hit the U.S.

In fact, this is the first hurricane season in 10 years that no hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. through the end of September, points out AccuWeather’s hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

Where have all the storms gone, and why?

The hurricanes that did form were strong — Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto all reached Category 4 strength, and Humberto reached Category 5.

But they’ve all arced north, away from the U.S. east coast, eventually U-turning back out into the Atlantic.

This is due in part to the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent high-pressure system that shifts position and size over the Atlantic.

The Bermuda High blocks hurricanes from spinning north as they travel across the ocean. This can steer them into the U.S., or if the high backs off, the storm cuts north before it reaches the U.S.

“The Bermuda high has been a little bit further east this year, and a little on the weaker side overall. That’s allowed most of the storms to just go around the edge of it and head out to sea. It hasn’t bulged west too much this season,” DaSilva said.

Without steering forces, a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will always turn to the right, because it is spinning counter-clockwise.

“The Bermuda High is extremely variable,” DaSilva said. “Sometimes it’s just sheer luck or not luck.” He said sometimes warm sea-surface temperatures near Europe can pull it east, allowing storms approaching the U.S. an easier turn away from land.

Another storm-steering force has been the jet stream. “Overall there’s been more dips in the jet stream over the east.” He said that creates a high-altitude wind from southwest that can collide with approaching storms, pushing that storm away from the U.S.

Dry air coming off Northern Africa has hindered storms, as has wind shear, both over the Atlantic and the Gulf.

Hurricane Humberto also did us a favor by pulling Hurricane Imelda away from the U.S. east coast.

As Humberto and Imelda paralleled each other, barreling toward the U.S., the rotational winds of Humberto, the larger system farther out to sea, pulled Imelda out to sea.

DaSilva thinks that if Humberto didn’t exist, Imelda would definitely have made landfall in the Carolinas.

Previous late-comers

Late-season hurricanes do occur:

Nov. 21, 1985: Hurricane Kate made landfall as a Category 2 storm in the Panhandle.

Oct. 29, 1998: Hurricane Mitch made landfall in Honduras, then again in Mexico on Nov. 4, and finally as a tropical storm in the Keys on Nov. 5.

Oct. 21, 2005: Category 4 Hurricane Wilma made landfall at Cozumel, Mexico, then made a U-turn and hit Florida’s southwest coast, at Cape Romano on Oct. 24.

Oct. 29, 2012: Hurricane Sandy did massive amounts of damage to New York City and the northeast, making landfall near Atlantic City, N.J., as a post-tropical cyclone.

Oct. 10, 2018: Category 5 Hurricane Michael crushed the Panhandle and was directly responsible for 16 deaths.

Will our luck hold out?

As for the next two weeks, DaSilva said he expects a tropical wave to roll off Africa some time between Oct. 5 to 8. It’s too early to tell what will come of it.

The Colorado State two-week hurricane season outlook predicts “above-normal activity” for the two weeks, and an above-average amount of Caribbean Accumulated Cyclone Energy in October and November.

As for the coming months, DaSilva said we are in the early phases of a La Niña, which should bring wind shear down, making storm formation easier in the next two months, particularly in the Gulf.

“Toward the middle of the month we’re going to have to watch the western Caribbean and southern Gulf,” DaSilva said.

The lack of storms in there has left the waters calm and thus hot. “The ocean heat content … is exceptionally high in the Gulf and western Caribbean,” he said.

“Those waters are untouched, so if you get a storm in there … we could be dealing with rapid intensification. There’s so much energy that’s in the ocean that has been untapped.”

Imelda is being tugged east by the much larger and nearby Category 3 Hurricane Humberto.

Imelda is predicted to intensify into a hurricane as it pivots farther northeast away from land.

Heavy rain is expected to create a flood risk along the U.S. coast, particularly in the Carolinas. How far inland that rainfall pushes will depend on the track of the storm. Here’s the latest forecast track:

Humberto’s center is expected to track well west, and then north, of Bermuda on Tuesday and Wednesday.

It is expected to bring dangerous surf to Bermuda and most of the U.S. coast this week.

Here’s the latest forecast track:

By Wednesday, Gabrielle was at Category 3 strength.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Azores as Gabrielle closes in.

The map below shows the latest forecast track:

The various computer models that show the potential tracks, known as the spaghetti models, consistently show the turn to the north over the coming days.