MIAMI GARDENS — The Miami Dolphins (7-9) are already assured of their second consecutive losing season. They’re trying to win Sunday against the New England Patriots (13-3) at Gillette Stadium so they can avoid posting their worst record in the coach Mike McDaniel era.
The oddsmakers favor the Patriots by 10 points, the second biggest underdog line for a Dolphins game this season after the Buffalo game that had the Dolphins as 11.5-point underdogs.
The Patriots edged the Dolphins, 33-27, earlier this season. And New England quarterback Drake Maye and coach Mike Vrabel have been such a good combination that the Patriots are in the running for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Here are five things to watch for in Sunday’s game:
Dolphins rookie QB Quinn Ewers
The Patriots are the biggest test of the season for Ewers, the seventh-round pick. New England’s defense is No. 7 in the league in total defense (302.4 yards allowed per game), No. 5 in points allowed (19.5 per game), tied for No. 7 against the run (104.1 yards allowed per game), and No. 10 against the pass (198.3 ypg).
Ewers (39 of 60, 485 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, 87.2 passer rating) has been calm and composed in his previous two starts, compiling a 1-1 record. If Ewers thrives, he’ll almost certainly open training camp with a shot at competing for the starting job ahead of next season. If Ewers falters, he might open training camp competing for the backup quarterback job.
Winning late-season road game
The Dolphins aren’t a good road team, and late-season road games present an even bigger challenge. Miami is 3-10 under McDaniel in December and January road games, including an 0-2 playoff record. The breakdown: Miami is 3-6 in December road games, including 1-1 this season, and 0-4 in January road games. New England, of course, is a January road game.
By the way, overall the Dolphins are 12-21 (.364) on the road under McDaniel, 12-23 (.343) including the playoffs.
The cold weather myth
The temperature at Gillette Stadium at kickoff is expected to be around 23 degrees. That’s considered problematic by some because the Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) in the McDaniel era when the temperature at kickoff is 45 degrees or below. The fact is, as you can see from above, the Dolphins are a bad road team, and they’re a worse road team when facing playoff-caliber opponents.
Among the Dolphins’ six losses in cold weather, five have come against playoff teams — Buffalo in 2022, Buffalo in the 2022 playoffs, Kansas City in the 2023 playoffs, Green Bay on Thanksgiving in 2024, and Pittsburgh earlier this season. The Dolphins wouldn’t have won any of those games if they were played in September at Hard Rock Stadium in 80-degree temperatures.
The Dolphins have fared OK against non-playoff teams in cold weather, losing to the New York Jets in last season’s finale (wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s infamous “I’m out, bro” game) and defeating the Jets earlier this season.
Unfortunately for the Dolphins, the Patriots are a playoff-caliber team.
Run game/run defense
A big part of the Dolphins’ winning formula this season is rushing for more than 100 yards and holding their opponent to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Miami is 7-3 when it rushes for more than 100 yards this season and 5-0 when it holds its opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing. It should be noted New England is 9-2 when rushing for 100 or more yards, including its 33-27 victory over Miami on Sept. 14 when it rushed for 122 yards in the season’s second game. The Dolphins could be missing a key run-stuffing player if linebacker Jordyn Brooks (league-leading 174 tackles) doesn’t play due to a hamstring ailment.
Rookie class
The Dolphins’ rookie class should be impactful on Sunday — all eight of the draftees as well as undrafted rookies wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. and newly-signed linebacker Jackson Woodard. Many rookies figure prominently into the immediate future.
Ewers will be the most visible rookie but defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, the first-round pick, and left guard Jonah Savaiinaea, the second-round pick, will be watched closely because of their draft status and because the Patriots are good at the line of scrimmage.
The rookies have been impactful as the season has worn on, especially defensively among cornerback Jason Marshall Jr., safety Dante Trader Jr., and defensive tackle Zeek Biggers. Offensively, running back Ollie Gordon II might get a few carries while Wease should get targets and Woodard should get special teams snaps. The rookie class has made a promising showing this season.
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