MIAMI — In the dugout, before Game 161, Gabe Kapler gave the quickest and best assessment of this Miami Marlins season that ends Sunday.
“Closer,’’ the team’s assistant general manager said.
That word wraps it all up: their 39 comeback wins entering Saturday’s game; their 16 more wins from last year (the biggest single-season increase in franchise history); their starting seven rookies at times; their going from second-to-last in doubles a year ago to second this year; their somehow not being eliminated from the playoffs until Game 159 and … yes, how they still have miles to go.
The Marlins should love this season to death and be scared they overachieved so much in going into this last weekend playing their first meaningless games – except they aren’t meaningless.
They can eliminate the New York Mets, whose $315 million payroll is $260 million more than the Marlins’. For that, the Mets might win a few more games and miss the playoffs?
Raise your hand if you saw this Marlins season coming?
Vegas didn’t, considering its over-under for the Marlins was 63.5 wins last February.
“My biggest takeaway from this group that I loved to watch is their resiliency,’’ manager Clayton McCullough said. “Games we’ve been down, their willingness to stay in there and come back, even if we lost, they fight to the end.”
All this is good and nice, but the accompanying number to this season is a minus-88 run differential entering Saturday. That’s a slap of reality. Tampa Bay has one fewer win and a plus-44 run differential. Was too much good luck built in?
So, this winter the Marlins braintrust has to decide what this season meant, and where it can go. Fans are all about Marlins owner Bruce Sherman spending money, and the expectation is a couple of free agents in the $10 million range will be signed.
That’s a different step forward. But they’ll never be in the market with the Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves unless a salary cap comes to baseball. Its collective bargaining agreement ends after the 2026 season. Stay tuned. The Marlins are.
The bottom-line issue for this year is simply this: How many players from this season can they build long-term with?
Baseball is the sport that teases you the most with good starts that turn bad with time. And it became hard to judge players like Griffin Conine, who showed talent but missed too much time to injury.
Three everyday Marlins stood out, though. Left-fielder Kyle Stowers was an All-Star after a blazing half-season that ended with injury. Shortstop Otto Lopez combined an ability in the field with 15 home runs. And center fielder Jakob Marsee showed in only 200 at-bats he’s ready to shine.
“There was a high floor for Jakob,’’ McCullough said. “The question was going to be how much is he going to impact with pitches in the strike zone. Right away, his initial hits were a lot of doubles and homers.”
The added good news of those players moving forward is they were all good decisions by General Manager Peter Bendix. Stowers came from Baltimore with Connor Norby last season for pitcher Trevor Rogers.
Lopez was signed after San Francisco released him before the 2024 season. Marsee was one of four players who came from San Diego in the trade for Luis Arraez, who hasn’t done much with the Padres.
That’s not to say Bendix is perfect. The Jesus Luzardo trade to Philadelphia hasn’t delivered. Jazz Chisholm had a career year with the New York Yankees while the verdict is out on catcher Agustin Ramirez — at least as a catcher. He can hit. Does he need a new position?
Another question: Do they keep Sandy Alcantara this winter? They’d need to spend the $17 million he costs on someone else, considering their payroll would dip into areas that would get pushback from other owners and the players’ union.
Keeping Alcantara would say the Marlins think they’re close enough to win. It’d suggest this season was a giant leap forward as the numbers say.
Sixteen more wins than a year ago entering Saturday?
Take a bow, Marlins.
Now tell us this winter what it all means.
